Research
You can also find my articles on my Google Scholar profile.
Published Papers
(joint with Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Johannes Wieland)Published in Annual Review of Economics, 2016
Countries rarely hit the zero lower bound (ZLB) on interest rates, but when they do, these episodes tend to be very long-lived. These two features are difficult to incorporate jointly into macroeconomic models using typical representations of shock processes. We introduce a regime-switching representation of risk premium shocks into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model to generate a realistic distribution of ZLB durations. We discuss what different calibrations of this model imply for optimal inflation rates. Read more
[Publication] [Draft] [Slides] [VOX-EU, CEPR Policy Portal article]
Recommended citation: Dordal i Carreras, Marc, Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Johannes Wieland. "Infrequent but long-lived zero lower bound episodes and the optimal rate of inflation." Annual Review of Economics 8 (2016): 497-520. https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-economics-080315-015306
Policy Papers
(joint with HKUST SBM and HSBC) The e-HKD Pilot Programme is a key component of the HKMA's three-rail approach in paving the way for a possible implementation of a retail central bank digital currency (CBDC). The pilot programme enables HKMA's collaboration with the industry to examine innovative use cases and maximise Hong Kong's readiness for a potential e-HKD. The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited (HSBC) was one of the institutions selected to participate. Collaborating with the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST), HSBC sought to explore possible e-HKD every-day payment use cases, focusing on programmability as a value-add feature of digital currency as well as payment rail efficiency. HSBC and HKUST constructed a one-week pilot on the HKUST campus, which included 148 students and 5 merchants. Read more
[e-HKD Pilot summary results] [HKMA e-HKD Pilot Phase 1 Report]
Working Papers
(joint with Seung Joo Lee)Reject and Resubmit for Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2024
We develop a New-Keynesian framework that incorporates the term-structure of financial markets and emphasizes the active role of the government and central bank's balance sheet size and composition. We demonstrate that the financial market segmentation and the household's endogenous portfolio reallocation are crucial features for accurately understanding the effects of Large-Scale Asset Purchase (LSAP) programs. Our micro-foundation based on imperfect information about expected discounted asset returns readily accommodates varying degrees of market segmentation across asset classes and maturities, based on estimable asset demand elasticities. The central bank's bond purchases across maturities serve as a major determinant of the level and slope of the term-structure, and yield-curve-control (YCC) policies that actively manipulate long-term yields are highly effective in terms of stabilization during both normal times and at the ZLB. However, YCC policies also increase the duration of ZLB episodes, consequently placing the central bank in a position where the short-term rate becomes a less useful policy tool. Read more
[Draft] [Slides]
Recommended citation: Joo Lee, Seung, and Marc Dordal i Carreras. "A Unified Theory of the Term-Structure and Monetary Stabilization." Working Paper (2024). http://marcdordal.github.io/files/WP_Term_Structure_Theory.pdf (joint with Kohei Kawaguchi, Si Yuan Jin and Haicheng Guo)Submitted
This study explores public perceptions of retail central bank digital currency (rCBDC) adoption through a pilot e-HKD payment system in Hong Kong. Surveys conducted before and after participants used the prototype revealed initially positive attitudes, with perceptions shifting significantly after the experience, particularly regarding security, ease of use, and promotional features. The findings highlight the importance of consumer perceptions, their susceptibility to change through exposure, and the need for cautious interpretation of survey data in this area. Read more
[Draft]
Recommended citation: Dordal i Carreras, Marc, Kohei Kawaguchi, Si Yuan Jin and Haicheng Guo. "Consumer Perceptions and Willingness to Adopt rCBDCs Before and After the e-HKD Pilot." In Progress (2024). http://marcdordal.github.io/files/WP_rCBDC_Taste_and_Perception.pdf (joint with Seung Joo Lee)Submitted
We study the propagation of localized banking panics across the United States, employing digitized state-level balance sheet data on the National Banks for the 1870-1929 period. Geographically localized panics result in the robust spillover outside the state borders where they originate, leading to moderately persistent credit contractions and the accumulation of liquid assets. We provide a tractable model illustrating a key trade-off: while interbank markets, e.g., the pyramidal reserve structure of the banking system during the National Banking Era, allow banks to access cheaper funding, they spread the effects of panics throughout the country as observed in the data. Read more
[Draft] [Slides]
Recommended citation: Dordal i Carreras, Marc and Seung Joo Lee. "The Spatial Transmission of US Banking Panics." Working Paper (2023). http://marcdordal.github.io/files/WP_US_Panics.pdf (joint with Seung Joo Lee)Submitted
We demonstrate that macroeconomic models with nominal rigidities feature multiple global solutions supporting alternative equilibria traditionally overlooked in the literature. In these equilibria, conventional Taylor rules give rise to self-fulfilling aggregate volatility, propelling the economy into crises (booms) characterized by elevated (reduced) aggregate risk. This outcome stems from the inability of conventional rules to target the expected growth rate of output, which is determined not only by the policy rate but also by the strength of the precautionary savings channel. We propose a new policy rule that targets both conventional mandates and aggregate volatility, reestablishing determinacy and achieving full stabilization. Read more
[Draft] [Slides]
Recommended citation: Joo Lee, Seung, and Marc Dordal i Carreras. "Self-fulfilling Volatility and a New Monetary Policy." Working Paper (2024). http://marcdordal.github.io/files/WP_Sunspot_risk_premium.pdf (joint with Cassie Xiang) This paper presents a theoretical framework to reconcile the declining female labor force participation (FLFP) rate and the diverging gender gap in workforce participation in China with the expansion of the service sector and with the increasing female comparative advantage in the market sectors. We argue that two factors jointly shape the trajectory of FLFP rate and gender gap in labor force participation: (i) the interaction between structural change and female comparative advantage dynamics, and (ii) the change of female comparative advantage in the market sectors relative to home production. The framework predicts that FLFP rate drops when women have comparative advantage in diminishing sectors and vice versa, and that a rise in female comparative advantage in the market sectors narrows gender differences in labor force participation. Read more
Recommended citation: Dordal i Carreras, Marc and Cassie Xiang. "Gender Gap, Structural Change and Female Comparative Advantage: A Quantitative Analysis of China." Working Paper (2024). (joint with Seung Joo Lee)Submitted
This paper develops a business cycle model with endogenous financial volatility at the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB), highlighting forward guidance as a key mechanism for coordinating market behavior and improving welfare. We show that central banks can reduce excess volatility by credibly pledging future stabilization, or alternatively, by withholding such pledges to direct the economy toward favorable outcomes with lower volatility, revealing a trade-off. We also find that partial uncertainty about future policy dominates strict commitments. Finally, fiscal measures that promote risky asset investments can boost economic activity at the ZLB by increasing aggregate household financial wealth. Read more
[Draft] [Slides]
Recommended citation: Dordal i Carreras, Marc and Seung Joo Lee. "Higher-Order Forward Guidance." Working Paper (2024). http://marcdordal.github.io/files/WP_Higher_order_forward_guidance.pdf (joint with Seung Joo Lee and Zhenghua Qi)Submitted
We present a model of business cycles with endogenous firm entry. In our framework, short-term supply shifts driven by new firm entries become a crucial factor in driving the economy's response to shocks, regardless of whether those shocks originate from the 'supply' or 'demand' blocks. Specifically, an uptick in aggregate demand triggers a cycle of increased firm entry, thereby enhancing aggregate supply and, in turn, further boosting demand through greater purchases of equipment by new entrants. Monetary policy becomes especially powerful, as it simultaneously impacts aggregate demand and the entry decisions of financially constrained firms. This effect is particularly noticeable in economies with a significant potential for new firm entries. Our analytical approach characterizes equilibrium firm entry as a function of the 'policy room', a sufficient statistic related to the effectiveness of monetary policy interventions in both the model and the data. Read more
[Draft] [Slides]
Recommended citation: Dordal i Carreras, Marc, Seung Joo Lee, and Zhenghua Qi. "Endogenous Firm Entry and the Supply-Side Effects of Monetary Policy." Working Paper (2024). http://marcdordal.github.io/files/WP_Firm_Entry_Supply_side_MP.pdf (joint with Matthias Hoelzlein and Jens Orben)Submitted
We propose a model of the financial sector that captures complex relationships between highly heterogeneous agents in the market for loanable interbank funds and develops the bank-to-bank component of the macroeconomics financial transmission channel. Financial institutions trade funds due to heterogeneous capacity to provide liquidity, but trade is subject to frictions and uncertainty. The model provides a tractable framework to study the trade-off between efficiency and volatility in the financial sector, and its contribution to business cycles fluctuations. Read more
[Draft] [Slides]
Recommended citation: Dordal i Carreras, Marc, Matthias Hoelzlein, and Jens Orben. "Efficiency, Risk and the Gains from Trade in Interbank Markets." Working Paper (2024). http://marcdordal.github.io/files/WP_Trade_Model_Banks.pdf
In Progress
Informational Experiment on Consumer’s Perception of Central Bank Digital Currency as Liquidity Assets
(joint with Kohei Kawaguchi and Si Yuan Jin) What Do We Learn From Reading Every FOMC Transcript?
(joint with Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Cooper Howes)
